- Friday, March 07, 2025
By: Shubham Ghosh
Former world champions India on Wednesday (2) defeated Bangladesh by five runs in a rain-curtailed Group 2 clash at Adelaide Oval to go to the top of the points table with a tally of six. South Africa, who beat them on Sunday (30), are in the second spot with five points.
However, while six points make India a strong contender for the semi-final berths from the group, they do not guarantee the Men in Blue a place in the last four since three other teams — South Africa, Bangladesh, and Pakistan could also end up with six points or more at the end of the group stage.
India have their final game lined up against Zimbabwe, who lost to the Netherlands earlier on Wednesday, in Melbourne on Sunday (6). South Africa will play Pakistan on Thursday (3) and the Netherlands on Sunday. Also, Bangladesh will play Pakistan the same day.
So how can India’s place in the semi-finals be confirmed?
The easiest way is to beat Zimbabwe in the final match and qualify for the semis straightaway. A win against the African side will take India to eight points and only the Proteas can achieve that tally. India and South Africa will be the two teams to make the last four in that case.
If India lose to Zimbabwe, then things will get interesting. They will then want South Africa to beat Pakistan and eliminate them out of the tournament and make their road to semi-final easier.
If Pakistan win against both South Africa and Bangladesh, they will also end up with six points and given South Africa are highly favourites against the Netherlands in their final game, only one among India and Pakistan will go to the semi-finals along with the Proteas. There’s nothing much to differentiate between the two sides’ net run rates (NRR) at the moment. India’s NRR at the moment is 0.730 as against Pakistan’s 0.765.
If Pakistan beat South Africa but lose to Bangladesh, then either of India or Bangladesh (both six points) will go to the last four along with South Africa. But India will have a higher chance since they are better placed than Bangladesh in NRR.
If both South Africa and Bangladesh beat Pakistan, then also the battle will be between Bangladesh and India for the second semi-final berth from the group.
India’s advantage is that they will play Zimbabwe after all others complete their matches and it will make it easier for Rohit Sharma’s men to plan their strategy.
