- Saturday, November 23, 2024
The PM’s Bharatiya Janata Party alone achieved the majority figure in the last two parliamentary elections. If it falls short of the same this time and alliance politics gains centrestage, Modi would have new challenges to deal with.
By: Shubham Ghosh
WHILE several exit polls after the conclusion of the seventh and final phase of the Indian general election 2024 predicted a massive win for prime minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its National Democratic Alliance (NDA), early trends on the counting day showed that the reality was not as smooth.
Till the latest results came in, the Hindu nationalist party’s alliance was leading in 301 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha or popularly elected chamber of the parliament while the opposition Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) was leading in 210. The trend would make the opposition parties glad, particularly after the humiliation they had faced in the last two general elections and several other state elections against Modi’s party.
In case the NDA has to settle for a smaller majority and the opposition register their best show in a long time, how would the BJP move from here on?
Modi has been the face of his party and alliance for a decade now. The massive electoral successes that the Hindu nationalist party have witnessed in this time have been because of the invincible brand of the prime minister. His stupendous success has not allowed any other challenges to grow and the BJP has managed to make a coalition of disparate groups, particularly in a key state such as Uttar Pradesh. Widespread welfare schemes by the administration of Modi in New Delhi and that of Yogi Adityanath in the state have helped the BJP more.
Read: Modi trails opponent in Varanasi parliamentary constituency in early counting
However, between the NDA’s emphatic win in 2019 and the latest election, there have been issues such as the Agnipath scheme, unemployment, farmers’ protest and others have come up as challenges for the Modi government. It is to be seen whether Brand Modi could still deal with these issues as easily after its majority gets reduced and the opposition boosted in the parliament.
If the results on the ground fall far below that of the claim of 400-plus seats, it would also raise questions, for the first time, on the efficacy of the BJP’s well-oiled machinery that has earned it rich dividends in past elections.
Read: India election results: Modi’s BJP, NDA take early leads
While the initial period saw the machinery led by Amit Shah, the current home minister, as a potent tool to reward Modi with electoral victories, the situation has changed now where it is playing more of a second-fiddle role to the PM’s larger-than-life appeal. Things have not reached a level of concern as long as the wins continued to come in but after a possible dip in the NDA’s total tally of seats between 2019 and 2024, these could give birth to big concerns.
The opposition Congress, despite its poor electoral performances in the times of Modi, came up with a well-crafted campaign around its leader Rahul Gandhi’s Nyay (justice) guarantees. Along with the Bharat Jodo Yatra and Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra, the Congress’s Nyay guarantees were not off the target mission, particularly with people facing the pinch of unemployment and inflation. Modi also has made his guarantees but a reduced majority could force him to slow down as an administrator.
Another significant concern that Modi could face post a less-than-claimed result is from the alliance itself. So far, the BJP alone has breached the majority mark, which made the concept of the NDA redundant. And some of the BJP’s key allies even exited the bloc which reduced its size. With the BJP alone not looking strong to cross 272 this time and the INDIA conglomerate gaining weight, the allies’ significance will increase for the top leadership of the BJP. This is one area where Modi is not a tested brand, unlike the other BJP prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee.
Can the PM find a magic answer to these probable questions in his third term?
