- Monday, February 24, 2025
Though none of the exit polls predicted 400-plus seats for the BJP-led NDA, it still was predicted to secure a comprehensive victory of the opposition INDIA bloc.
By: Shubham Ghosh
EXIT poll results began to emerge after India voted in the seventh and final phase of its marathon national elections and as many as six of them predicted a decisive victory for prime minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) that it leads.
While the exit poll by Republic Bharat-P Marq predicted 359 seats for the NDA, India News-D-Dynamics made a forecast of 371 seats. Republic Bharat-Matrize predicted the NDA getting between 353 and 368 seats while Dainik Bhaskar between 281 and 350, News Nation between 342 and 378 and Jan Ki Baat between 362 and 392. The ABP-CVoter exit poll forecast 353 to 383 seats for the BJP.
None of them, however, predicted a 400-plus tally for the NDA, something the ruling party’s leaders had been forecasting.
The opposition Indian National Congress and its Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) was mostly predicted to get less than 200 seats. The bloc comprises of more than two dozen parties that aim to topple Modi from power.
Read: India elections: Gruelling heat greets voters on final day
According to the Republic Bharat-P Marq, the INDIA bloc could get 154 seats. India News-D-Dynamics predicted the opposition to be limited between 125-133 seats while Republic Bharat-Matrize forecast that they could win something between 118 and 133 seats. Jan Ki Baat predicted 141-161 seats for the INDIA bloc. News Nation’s prediction said the opposition alliance could get between 153 and 169 seats. Dainik Bhaskar said the INDIA bloc could settle between 145 and 201 seats. According to ABP-CVoter, the Congress could win between 152 and 182 seats.
Read: India’s colossal election concludes: What’s next?
A party or alliance needs to win 272 seats to form government in the Indian parliament comprising 543 seats.
The exit polls have predicted that the NDA will dominate the southern state of Karnataka, which it lost to the opposition Indian National Congress last year. It is also expected to win in the western state of Maharashtra which it governs. In another southern state of Kerala, the Left-led Left Democratic Front could be routed. In the eastern state of West Bengal, where Modi’s BJP has not been a force traditionally but witnessing a rise over the last few elections — federal and local — it could emerge as the single-largest party in terms of parliamentary seats, said at least three exit polls.
If the exit polls come to be true, it will mark a hat-trick for Modi and his BJP, a development that Indian politics will witness since the early 1960s when the country’s first prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru had won his third consecutive term.
In the 2019 general elections, the BJP won 303 seats and the NDA finished with a tally of 351. In the 2014 elections, the BJP won 282 and the NDA finished with 336.
The opposition Congress got only 52 seats in the 2019 elections and the former opposition bloc — United Progressive Alliance (UPA) ended with just 91 seats. In 2014, the Congress won 44 seats and the UPA just 59.
Exit polls are opinion polls of people leaving a polling station after casting their ballots, asking how they voted. They are not always accurate.
The actual results of the elections will be announced on Tuesday (4).
